Josh offers this today:

Talking Points Memo: by Joshua Micah Marshall: September 05, 2004 – September 11, 2004 Archives

A note on polls: as of the day after the convention I’m told by what I believe to be reliable sources that the internal polls of both campaigns had President Bush up roughly four points on John Kerry.
Getting straight-up info on what each campaigns’ own polls are telling them is inherently difficult. And I want to make clear that I have not seen the data with my own eyes. But I have heard this from sources (for each side) which I believe to be reliable. And I’m passing the information on on that caveat-ed basis.