ESPN.com: MLB – Standings at trade deadline often tell final result By Alan Schwarz
What a bunch of malarky…..I only have to think back 3 years to my own team’s situation in the standings to refute this. He’s giving all these stats about who’s in first July 31 ,by how many, and how many of those in first and second and third end up winning the thing.
Since divisional play began in 1969 (not including strike years of 1981 and 1994), of the 139 teams that have finished atop their division, 101 were already in first place or tied for first after games of July 31. And 27 of the 38 who came back from below hit the trading deadline 3½ games or less from the lead (see accompanying chart).
from the chart:
| 7/31 gb | teams | finish1st | pct |
| 0-½ | 159 | 107 | 67 |
| 1-1½ | 19 | 8 | 42 |
| 2-2½ | 21 | 3 | 14 |
| 3-3½ | 31 | 10 | 32 |
| 4-4½ | 37 | 2 | 5 |
So, right now, the Reds are 3 1/2 back. That’s even better than 2 games back! They just gained a game and a half! Any glance at the chart has exactly ONE striking bit of infiormation, and it ain’t how surprised we should be that 101 of 139 teams that were in first place July 31 actually finished first (that means over 1/3 of them didn’t), but somehow, when you move from 2-2.5 games back to 3-3.5, the number of teams that came back from those deficits jumps from 3 to 10! What it means it statistics are entirely random , and that 3.5 is basically a nothin’ lead. Not to say I wouldn’t rather be 3.5 up, but in 1999, the Reds not only trailed July 31, but most of the year, and often at around 3, and even fell 4 and a half back in mid-September, and still overtoook the Astros only to fall into a tie with the Mets for the wild card. Up, down, up down. So far, the Reds have been up 5, down 4, down 1, down 4.5, and now its 3.5.
Another huge hole in this grandiose satisitical condundrum:
The dropoff after 3½ games is severe: Of the 105 teams that entered August between 4-6½ games back, just six (5.7 percent) came back to finish in first place. It turns out that teams 4-6½ games back at the deadline have been more than three times as likely to finish 10 games out as opposed to 3½ games or less.
Which kindof overlooks how there is NO dropoff whatsoever from 2-2.5 to 3-3.5, in fact there is a dramtic reversal. That was conveniently skipped over, for it kind of betrays how impossibly random it is.
I guess I read the article though, didn’t I?