“There’s a powerful planning tool known as the Three Horizons Model, which uses this analogy to shed light on how various strategies and tactics fit into the ultimate objective of an enterprise. Developed originally for business strategy, it has been applied equally well to social and political planning.
The first horizon relates to short-term planning-essential for daily andmonthly accomplishments, but only if the right direction has already been set. The second horizon extends beyond incremental thinking, potentially disrupting conventional practices to achieve greater impact, while remaining in the same ballpark. The third horizon refers to ideas that are outside the ballpark, shifting the entire paradigm and thus permitting possibilities that could never have been imagined within the first two horizons.18
The Three Horizons Model is invaluable when applied to the global socio-economic situation the world faces today. There is no end of debates about first horizon issues; meanwhile, occasional powerful ideas reverberate through the system, shattering business as usual and bringing the second horizon into view. But there is very little third horizon thinking-so much so that most people are barely aware, if at all, that a third horizon could even exist.
In response to our metacrisis, first horizon activities might include advocating for greater investment in renewable energy, eliminating subsidies for fossil fuel companies, or strengthening regulations covering pollution.
Second horizon thinking can appear seductively attractive: The all-electric Tesla spectacularly disrupted the conventional automobile industry; carbon capture and storage—if it were to work at scale— promises to turn energy production into a carbon-neutral, or even negative, enterprise. But these disruptive technologies continue to reinforce the same paradigm that caused our crisis in the first place: the relentless pursuit of economic growth within
the context of a globalized capitalist system that rewards extractive and ex-
ploitative behavior above all else.
The third horizon is the primary subject of this book: envisioning a civilization built on an entirely different foundation than the one that undergirds our current society. It offers the possibility for a new era that could be defined, at its deepest level, by a transformation in the way we make sense of the world, and a concomitant revolution in our predominant values.” — pp. 73-74